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CLV prospectivo · 2026/27

Line value de la línea temprana del modelo anclado. Se regenera con --html a medida que entra la data.

generado 2026-10-04 14:42 · 66 bets · 14 EV<0 · 24 pend. · resultados hasta 03-10

CLV medio +1.25% · IC95% [-3.18%, +5.85%] · le gana al cierre 56% de las veces

Señal en la dirección correcta; el IC todavía cruza 0 — hace falta más n.

+1.25%

CLV medio

56%

gana al cierre

63€

banca

-48%/-37%

yield/roi

bets liq.

pendientes

CLV por pick (verde = mejor precio que el cierre; ✓/✗ = acertó/erró)

banca — 100€ inicial, ¼ de Kelly

picks

fecha	comp	partido	pick	cuota	p mod	EV	cierre	CLV	result	stake	P&L	banca
2026-10-04	A2	Greece vs Germany	X Empate	3.79	29%	+9%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-04	A4	Wales vs Denmark	X Empate	3.99	28%	+12%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-04	B3	Republic of Ireland vs Israel	1 Republic of Ireland	1.94	54%	+6%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-04	A2	Netherlands vs Serbia	X Empate	6.23	17%	+7%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-04	A4	Portugal vs Norway	1 Portugal	1.79	59%	+5%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-04	D2	Azerbaijan vs Lithuania	2 Lithuania	3.57	28%	+1%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-04	B3	Kosovo vs Austria	X Empate	3.48	29%	+1%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-04	D1	Malta vs Andorra	2 Andorra	6.01	21%	+29%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-05	A1	France vs Belgium	X Empate	4.36	26%	+15%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-05	A1	Italy vs Turkey	X Empate	4.09	25%	+2%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-05	C2	Cyprus vs Latvia	2 Latvia	4.58	22%	+3%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-05	C2	Montenegro vs Armenia	X Empate	4.20	24%	-0%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-05	B4	Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland	1 Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.43	30%	+1%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-05	B4	Romania vs Sweden	1 Romania	4.05	28%	+14%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-05	B2	Northern Ireland vs Georgia	1 Northern Ireland	2.55	47%	+19%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-05	B2	Ukraine vs Hungary	1 Ukraine	2.40	49%	+18%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-06	C3	Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands	1 Kazakhstan	2.53	44%	+11%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-06	C3	Moldova vs Slovakia	X Empate	4.50	22%	+1%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-06	A3	Croatia vs Spain	X Empate	6.06	23%	+40%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-06	A3	England vs Czech Republic	X Empate	8.43	12%	+3%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-06	C4	Estonia vs Iceland	X Empate	3.82	27%	+3%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-06	C4	Luxembourg vs Bulgaria	2 Bulgaria	4.42	26%	+17%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-06	B1	Scotland vs Slovenia	1 Scotland	1.98	49%	-2%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-06	B1	Switzerland vs North Macedonia	1 Switzerland	1.14	86%	-1%	—	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.	pend.
2026-10-03	C1	Finland vs Albania	2 Albania	3.58	29%	+3%	3.38	+5.92%	1 ❌	0.17€	-0.17€	61.83€
2026-10-03	A3	Croatia vs England	1 Croatia	4.17	28%	+16%	4.95	-15.76%	2 ❌	0.79€	-0.79€	61.04€
2026-10-03	C4	Estonia vs Luxembourg	1 Estonia	2.72	41%	+12%	2.96	-8.11%	1 ✅	1.06€	+1.81€	62.86€
2026-10-03	A3	Spain vs Czech Republic	1 Spain	1.10	91%	+0%	1.07	+2.70%	1 ✅	0.30€	+0.03€	62.89€
2026-10-03	B1	North Macedonia vs Scotland	1 North Macedonia	4.33	24%	+6%	8.61	-49.71%	2 ❌	0.26€	-0.26€	62.00€
2026-10-03	B1	Switzerland vs Slovenia	1 Switzerland	1.41	71%	-0%	1.38	+2.25%	1 ✅	—	—	—
2026-10-03	C4	Iceland vs Bulgaria	1 Iceland	1.46	66%	-3%	1.49	-2.01%	1 ✅	—	—	—
2026-10-03	C1	Belarus vs San Marino	1 Belarus	1.07	94%	+1%	1.08	-0.83%	1 ✅	1.21€	+0.09€	62.97€
2026-10-02	C2	Cyprus vs Armenia	1 Cyprus	2.40	46%	+11%	1.97	+21.83%	1 ✅	1.23€	+1.72€	63.01€
2026-10-02	C2	Latvia vs Montenegro	1 Latvia	4.31	30%	+29%	5.43	-20.63%	2 ❌	1.37€	-1.37€	61.29€
2026-10-02	A1	Belgium vs Turkey	1 Belgium	1.50	68%	+2%	1.48	+1.96%	1 ✅	0.61€	+0.31€	62.66€
2026-10-02	A1	France vs Italy	X Empate	4.31	23%	-1%	4.70	-8.30%	X ✅	—	—	—
2026-10-02	C3	Kazakhstan vs Moldova	1 Kazakhstan	1.67	62%	+3%	1.89	-11.95%	2 ❌	0.74€	-0.74€	62.26€
2026-10-02	C3	Faroe Islands vs Slovakia	1 Faroe Islands	6.41	21%	+36%	5.04	+27.18%	X ❌	1.04€	-1.04€	62.14€
2026-10-02	B4	Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Sweden	X Empate	3.54	29%	+1%	3.52	+0.57%	X ✅	0.08€	+0.21€	62.35€
2026-10-02	B4	Poland vs Romania	2 Romania	5.51	23%	+26%	6.36	-13.36%	1 ❌	0.91€	-0.91€	63.18€
2026-10-02	B2	Hungary vs Georgia	2 Georgia	4.23	25%	+6%	3.05	+38.69%	1 ❌	0.31€	-0.31€	64.09€
2026-10-02	B2	Ukraine vs Northern Ireland	1 Ukraine	1.95	59%	+15%	2.30	-15.13%	2 ❌	2.55€	-2.55€	64.40€
2026-10-01	A2	Germany vs Serbia	X Empate	5.82	17%	+1%	7.60	-23.42%	1 ❌	0.05€	-0.05€	67.17€
2026-10-01	A2	Greece vs Netherlands	1 Greece	4.04	26%	+5%	3.31	+22.05%	X ❌	0.30€	-0.30€	67.84€
2026-10-01	A4	Denmark vs Portugal	1 Denmark	3.75	29%	+10%	4.06	-7.61%	2 ❌	0.63€	-0.63€	67.22€
2026-10-01	A4	Wales vs Norway	X Empate	3.83	27%	+4%	5.10	-24.90%	1 ❌	0.22€	-0.22€	66.95€
2026-10-01	B3	Israel vs Kosovo	1 Israel	3.25	36%	+16%	2.78	+16.91%	X ❌	1.24€	-1.24€	68.15€
2026-10-01	B3	Republic of Ireland vs Austria	1 Republic of Ireland	3.52	30%	+5%	3.44	+2.33%	X ❌	0.37€	-0.37€	69.39€
2026-10-01	D2	Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein	1 Azerbaijan	1.21	80%	-3%	1.12	+8.13%	X ❌	—	—	—
2026-10-01	D1	Malta vs Gibraltar	2 Gibraltar	10.86	10%	+9%	14.18	-23.41%	X ❌	0.15€	-0.15€	69.76€
2026-09-29	A3	Czech Republic vs England	X Empate	4.63	23%	+9%	6.05	-23.47%	2 ❌	0.44€	-0.44€	72.14€
2026-09-29	A3	Spain vs Croatia	1 Spain	1.32	76%	+0%	1.24	+6.53%	1 ✅	0.25€	+0.08€	72.58€
2026-09-29	B1	Scotland vs Switzerland	1 Scotland	3.46	29%	-0%	4.50	-23.11%	2 ❌	—	—	—
2026-09-29	B1	Slovenia vs North Macedonia	1 Slovenia	1.68	60%	+1%	1.41	+19.23%	1 ✅	0.16€	+0.11€	72.50€
2026-09-29	C3	Moldova vs Faroe Islands	2 Faroe Islands	3.09	41%	+26%	2.52	+22.62%	X ❌	2.23€	-2.23€	69.91€
2026-09-29	C1	Finland vs Belarus	1 Finland	1.81	60%	+9%	1.53	+18.81%	X ❌	2.07€	-2.07€	72.39€
2026-09-29	C4	Bulgaria vs Estonia	2 Estonia	5.76	22%	+26%	4.76	+21.01%	X ❌	1.04€	-1.04€	74.46€
2026-09-29	C4	Luxembourg vs Iceland	2 Iceland	2.34	42%	-3%	2.14	+9.35%	2 ✅	—	—	—
2026-09-29	C3	Slovakia vs Kazakhstan	2 Kazakhstan	10.87	10%	+10%	15.91	-31.68%	1 ❌	0.20€	-0.20€	75.50€
2026-09-29	C1	San Marino vs Albania	X Empate	20.67	6%	+21%	16.00	+29.19%	2 ❌	0.20€	-0.20€	75.70€
2026-09-28	B2	Georgia vs Ukraine	1 Georgia	2.84	38%	+7%	2.18	+30.28%	X ❌	0.77€	-0.77€	77.12€
2026-09-28	A1	Belgium vs France	1 Belgium	3.77	37%	+38%	3.00	+25.67%	2 ❌	3.09€	-3.09€	87.23€
2026-09-28	A1	Turkey vs Italy	1 Turkey	3.26	36%	+16%	2.99	+9.03%	2 ❌	1.57€	-1.57€	85.66€
2026-09-28	B4	Romania vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	1 Romania	2.11	58%	+23%	2.71	-22.14%	2 ❌	4.49€	-4.49€	81.17€
2026-09-28	B4	Sweden vs Poland	X Empate	3.65	28%	+0%	3.68	-0.82%	1 ❌	0.03€	-0.03€	81.13€
2026-09-28	B2	Northern Ireland vs Hungary	1 Northern Ireland	3.79	38%	+45%	2.84	+33.45%	X ❌	3.24€	-3.24€	77.89€
2026-09-28	C2	Armenia vs Montenegro	2 Montenegro	2.72	37%	+2%	2.54	+7.09%	2 ✅	0.17€	+0.29€	77.41€
2026-09-28	C2	Latvia vs Cyprus	1 Latvia	2.67	42%	+13%	3.18	-16.04%	X ❌	1.51€	-1.51€	75.90€
2026-09-27	A2	Serbia vs Netherlands	X Empate	3.77	26%	-1%	5.28	-28.60%	2 ❌	—	—	—
2026-09-27	A4	Denmark vs Wales	1 Denmark	1.68	67%	+13%	1.41	+19.23%	1 ✅	4.23€	+2.88€	90.43€
2026-09-27	B3	Austria vs Kosovo	X Empate	4.39	24%	+5%	4.33	+1.39%	1 ❌	0.34€	-0.34€	87.56€
2026-09-27	A2	Germany vs Greece	X Empate	5.20	20%	+2%	4.86	+7.00%	2 ❌	0.12€	-0.12€	90.32€
2026-09-27	A4	Norway vs Portugal	X Empate	3.43	29%	+1%	3.87	-11.37%	2 ❌	0.11€	-0.11€	90.39€
2026-09-27	B3	Israel vs Republic of Ireland	1 Israel	2.74	44%	+21%	2.78	-1.44%	2 ❌	2.79€	-2.79€	91.01€
2026-09-27	D2	Lithuania vs Azerbaijan	1 Lithuania	2.52	46%	+17%	2.20	+14.55%	X ❌	2.50€	-2.50€	87.90€
2026-09-27	D1	Gibraltar vs Andorra	2 Andorra	2.39	43%	+3%	2.53	-5.53%	X ❌	0.50€	-0.50€	90.50€
2026-09-26	B1	Slovenia vs Scotland	1 Slovenia	2.76	39%	+7%	2.94	-6.12%	X ❌	0.95€	-0.95€	96.86€
2026-09-26	C4	Bulgaria vs Luxembourg	2 Luxembourg	3.95	25%	-2%	3.31	+19.34%	2 ✅	—	—	—
2026-09-26	C4	Iceland vs Estonia	1 Iceland	1.46	72%	+5%	1.24	+17.70%	X ❌	2.46€	-2.46€	94.39€
2026-09-26	C3	Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan	1 Faroe Islands	2.52	46%	+15%	1.93	+30.30%	X ❌	2.37€	-2.37€	92.03€
2026-09-26	A3	Czech Republic vs Croatia	2 Croatia	2.31	45%	+3%	1.95	+18.34%	2 ✅	0.51€	+0.67€	92.70€
2026-09-26	A3	England vs Spain	2 Spain	2.45	39%	-4%	2.20	+11.36%	2 ✅	—	—	—
2026-09-26	C3	Slovakia vs Moldova	1 Slovakia	1.27	84%	+6%	1.17	+8.38%	1 ✅	5.29€	+1.42€	94.12€
2026-09-26	C1	Albania vs Belarus	2 Belarus	6.69	15%	+1%	5.75	+16.35%	1 ❌	0.05€	-0.05€	94.06€
2026-09-26	B1	North Macedonia vs Switzerland	X Empate	4.55	23%	+4%	5.52	-17.57%	2 ❌	0.26€	-0.26€	93.80€
2026-09-25	C2	Armenia vs Latvia	2 Latvia	4.45	27%	+22%	5.10	-12.75%	1 ❌	1.62€	-1.62€	98.70€
2026-09-25	B2	Georgia vs Northern Ireland	1 Georgia	1.86	52%	-3%	1.85	+0.81%	2 ❌	—	—	—
2026-09-25	A1	Italy vs Belgium	X Empate	3.52	29%	+4%	3.59	-1.95%	2 ❌	0.38€	-0.38€	100.32€
2026-09-25	A1	Turkey vs France	1 Turkey	5.72	20%	+17%	8.59	-33.41%	2 ❌	0.89€	-0.89€	97.81€
2026-09-25	C2	Montenegro vs Cyprus	X Empate	3.83	25%	-3%	3.99	-4.01%	1 ❌	—	—	—
2026-09-25	B4	Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	1 Poland	1.66	62%	+3%	1.53	+8.58%	X ❌	1.05€	-1.05€	100.70€
2026-09-25	B4	Sweden vs Romania	X Empate	4.33	27%	+15%	4.98	-13.05%	1 ❌	1.14€	-1.14€	101.75€
2026-09-25	B2	Hungary vs Ukraine	2 Ukraine	3.30	32%	+6%	3.06	+7.84%	2 ✅	0.62€	+1.43€	102.89€
2026-09-24	D1	Andorra vs Malta	1 Andorra	3.36	41%	+37%	4.38	-23.29%	2 ❌	3.92€	-3.92€	96.08€
2026-09-24	A2	Netherlands vs Germany	X Empate	3.80	29%	+9%	3.79	+0.26%	X ✅	0.75€	+2.11€	98.19€
2026-09-24	A2	Serbia vs Greece	1 Serbia	2.60	40%	+5%	3.36	-22.62%	2 ❌	0.79€	-0.79€	97.40€
2026-09-24	A4	Norway vs Denmark	1 Norway	2.00	51%	+2%	1.64	+21.88%	1 ✅	0.38€	+0.38€	97.78€
2026-09-24	A4	Portugal vs Wales	1 Portugal	1.23	82%	+0%	1.16	+5.68%	1 ✅	0.06€	+0.01€	97.80€
2026-09-24	D2	Liechtenstein vs Lithuania	1 Liechtenstein	11.40	16%	+84%	12.88	-11.49%	2 ❌	1.98€	-1.98€	95.82€
2026-09-24	B3	Austria vs Israel	X Empate	4.97	22%	+10%	4.72	+5.30%	1 ❌	0.60€	-0.60€	95.22€
2026-09-24	B3	Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland	1 Kosovo	2.60	49%	+26%	2.45	+6.12%	1 ✅	3.90€	+6.24€	101.46€

por ligatodo 66 bets · CLV +1.25% · gana al cierre 56% · sin Liga D 61 bets · CLV +2.16% · gana al cierre 59% · por liga: A 21 · -1.2% · B 21 · +1.5% · C 19 · +6.5% · D 5 · -9.8%

Stakes · jornada 04-10-2026

banca 85.79 — de la curva de ¼ Kelly sobre lo ya liquidado, no un valor fijo
4 de 8 picks con ventaja · total 1.08 (1.3% de la banca)

grupo	partido	pick	cuota	p mod	p mkt	p usada	stake
D1	Malta v Andorra	2 Andorra	6.01	0.21	0.16	0.19	0.53
B3	Republic of Ireland v Israel	1 Republic of Ireland	1.94	0.54	0.50	0.52	0.24
A4	Wales v Denmark	X Empate	3.99	0.28	0.23	0.26	0.21
A2	Greece v Germany	X Empate	3.79	0.29	0.25	0.27	0.09
A2	Netherlands v Serbia	X Empate	6.23	0.17	0.15	0.16	—
D2	Azerbaijan v Lithuania	2 Lithuania	3.57	0.28	0.26	0.27	—
B3	Kosovo v Austria	X Empate	3.48	0.29	0.27	0.28	—
A4	Portugal v Norway	1 Portugal	1.79	0.59	0.53	0.56	—

¼ Kelly simultáneo: los partidos de una jornada se juegan a la vez, así que se maximiza el log-crecimiento esperado sobre los 2ⁿ desenlaces en vez de dimensionar cada apuesta como si la anterior ya se hubiera resuelto.
p usada = 50% modelo + 50% mercado de-vigueado. El pick lo elige el modelo solo; la mezcla sólo dimensiona, porque mejor_pick toma el lado de máximo EV y eso sesga p hacia arriba.

CLV (closing line value) = cuánto mejor fue tu precio de entrada respecto del cierre. Es el termómetro de edge: no mide si acertaste el resultado, sino si el mercado se movió a favor de tu pick. Un CLV medio positivo con IC que no cruza 0 = edge real. El P&L es ruidoso por diseño y necesita años; el veredicto vive en el CLV.