Bivariate Poisson · 1 fuerza por equipo

UEFA Nations League 2026/27

Fase de liga · 156 partidos · 54 selecciones · 24 sep → 17 nov 2026
Modelo entrenado con partidos internacionales desde 2010-08-01 y hasta 2026-09-24 (excluido) · Half-Period 2.00 años · ventaja de local γ=0.177 · covarianza λ₃=0.078
40.000 simulaciones Monte Carlo · generado 2026-09-21 22:02

156

partidos

selecciones

grupos

2.0a

half-period

15.257

partidos de entrenamiento

Quién gana la Nations League

Probabilidad de llegar a los cuartos de final (1º o 2º de grupo en la Liga A) y de levantar el trofeo en junio de 2027. Los cuartos se simulan a ida y vuelta con un sorteo cruzado ganador–segundo de otro grupo; las semifinales y la final, a partido único en sede neutral.

Selección	Grupo	Fuerza	Cuartos	Campeón
Spain	A3	+1.53	73%	31.5%
France	A1	+1.34	49%	13.4%
Portugal	A4	+1.31	48%	12.1%
England	A3	+1.29	44%	10.1%
Germany	A2	+1.25	44%	9.9%
Netherlands	A2	+1.24	43%	9.2%
Belgium	A1	+1.18	29%	5.4%
Norway	A4	+1.12	25%	3.7%
Denmark	A4	+1.03	15%	1.7%
Italy	A1	+1.03	12%	1.5%
Croatia	A3	+0.99	8%	0.9%
Greece	A2	+0.83	4%	0.3%
Turkey	A1	+0.86	3%	0.2%
Serbia	A2	+0.74	2%	0.1%
Wales	A4	+0.66	1%	0.0%
Czech Republic	A3	+0.65	0%	0.0%

Liga A

Grupo A14 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
France	+1.34	11.1	56%	27%	12%	4%
Belgium	+1.18	9.2	28%	37%	24%	11%
Italy	+1.03	7.3	12%	24%	37%	27%
Turkey	+0.86	5.2	4%	12%	27%	58%

1º: Cuartos de final · 2º: Cuartos de final · 3º: Play-off (vs 2º de B) · 4º: Descenso a B

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
25-09	Italy vs Belgium	36	30	34	1.18–1.13	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
25-09	Turkey vs France	20	27	53	0.87–1.53	43	46	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
28-09	Belgium vs France	37	29	34	1.18–1.13	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
28-09	Turkey vs Italy	36	30	35	1.16–1.15	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
02-10	Belgium vs Turkey	65	22	13	1.86–0.73	47	44	1-0 14%, 2-0 13%
02-10	France vs Italy	64	23	14	1.83–0.74	47	44	1-0 15%, 2-0 13%
05-10	France vs Belgium	54	26	19	1.57–0.85	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
05-10	Italy vs Turkey	55	26	19	1.60–0.84	44	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
12-11	Italy vs France	28	29	43	1.02–1.31	41	47	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
12-11	Turkey vs Belgium	27	29	44	1.00–1.33	41	47	0-1 13%, 1-1 13%
15-11	Belgium vs Italy	55	26	19	1.58–0.85	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
15-11	France vs Turkey	73	18	9	2.15–0.64	52	42	2-0 14%, 1-0 14%

Grupo A24 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Germany	+1.25	11.1	47%	38%	12%	3%
Netherlands	+1.24	11.0	45%	39%	12%	4%
Greece	+0.83	5.9	5%	14%	43%	39%
Serbia	+0.74	5.0	3%	9%	33%	55%

1º: Cuartos de final · 2º: Cuartos de final · 3º: Play-off (vs 2º de B) · 4º: Descenso a B

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
24-09	Netherlands vs Germany	45	29	27	1.35–0.99	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
24-09	Serbia vs Greece	40	29	30	1.26–1.06	41	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 13%
27-09	Germany vs Greece	70	20	10	2.05–0.67	51	43	1-0 14%, 2-0 14%
27-09	Serbia vs Netherlands	20	26	54	0.86–1.57	43	46	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
01-10	Germany vs Serbia	75	17	8	2.22–0.62	53	42	2-0 15%, 1-0 14%
01-10	Greece vs Netherlands	23	28	49	0.92–1.45	42	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
04-10	Greece vs Germany	23	28	50	0.91–1.46	42	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
04-10	Netherlands vs Serbia	74	18	8	2.20–0.62	53	42	2-0 14%, 1-0 14%
13-11	Netherlands vs Greece	70	20	10	2.03–0.67	50	43	1-0 14%, 2-0 14%
13-11	Serbia vs Germany	19	26	55	0.85–1.58	44	46	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
16-11	Germany vs Netherlands	46	28	26	1.38–0.97	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
16-11	Greece vs Serbia	50	27	22	1.48–0.91	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%

Grupo A34 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Spain	+1.53	13.1	71%	24%	5%	0%
England	+1.29	10.3	25%	53%	19%	3%
Croatia	+0.99	6.8	4%	20%	57%	18%
Czech Republic	+0.65	3.2	0%	3%	18%	78%

1º: Cuartos de final · 2º: Cuartos de final · 3º: Play-off (vs 2º de B) · 4º: Descenso a B

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
26-09	Czech Republic vs Croatia	27	29	45	0.99–1.35	41	47	0-1 13%, 1-1 13%
26-09	England vs Spain	31	29	39	1.08–1.23	41	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
29-09	Czech Republic vs England	15	23	62	0.76–1.78	46	45	0-1 15%, 0-2 12%
29-09	Spain vs Croatia	76	17	7	2.29–0.60	55	41	2-0 15%, 1-0 13%
03-10	Croatia vs England	29	29	42	1.04–1.29	41	47	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
03-10	Spain vs Czech Republic	90	8	2	3.18–0.45	70	35	3-0 14%, 2-0 14%
06-10	Croatia vs Spain	18	26	56	0.83–1.63	44	46	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
06-10	England vs Czech Republic	80	14	6	2.50–0.56	58	40	2-0 15%, 1-0 12%
12-11	Czech Republic vs Spain	8	17	75	0.61–2.26	54	41	0-2 15%, 0-1 13%
12-11	England vs Croatia	63	23	14	1.80–0.75	47	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 13%
15-11	Croatia vs Czech Republic	65	22	13	1.88–0.72	48	44	1-0 14%, 2-0 13%
15-11	Spain vs England	60	24	16	1.72–0.78	45	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%

Grupo A44 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Portugal	+1.31	11.6	59%	27%	12%	2%
Norway	+1.12	9.3	25%	38%	29%	8%
Denmark	+1.03	8.2	15%	30%	41%	14%
Wales	+0.66	3.9	1%	5%	17%	76%

1º: Cuartos de final · 2º: Cuartos de final · 3º: Play-off (vs 2º de B) · 4º: Descenso a B

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
24-09	Norway vs Denmark	51	27	22	1.49–0.90	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
24-09	Portugal vs Wales	82	13	5	2.56–0.54	59	39	2-0 15%, 3-0 12%
27-09	Denmark vs Wales	67	21	12	1.95–0.70	49	44	1-0 14%, 2-0 13%
27-09	Norway vs Portugal	34	30	36	1.14–1.17	40	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
01-10	Denmark vs Portugal	30	29	41	1.05–1.27	41	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
01-10	Wales vs Norway	21	27	52	0.88–1.52	43	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
04-10	Portugal vs Norway	57	25	18	1.63–0.82	44	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 11%
04-10	Wales vs Denmark	25	28	47	0.96–1.39	41	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 13%
14-11	Norway vs Wales	72	19	9	2.13–0.64	52	42	2-0 14%, 1-0 14%
14-11	Portugal vs Denmark	62	23	14	1.78–0.76	46	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
17-11	Denmark vs Norway	40	29	31	1.25–1.07	41	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 13%
17-11	Wales vs Portugal	14	23	63	0.74–1.82	47	45	0-1 15%, 0-2 13%

Liga B

Grupo B14 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Switzerland	+1.05	12.4	71%	21%	7%	2%
Scotland	+0.75	8.8	18%	42%	29%	12%
Slovenia	+0.64	7.3	9%	28%	40%	22%
North Macedonia	+0.39	4.5	2%	9%	24%	65%

1º: Asciende a A · 2º: Play-off (vs 3º de A) · 3º: Play-off (vs 2º de C) · 4º: Descenso a C

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
26-09	North Macedonia vs Switzerland	14	23	63	0.74–1.82	47	45	0-1 15%, 0-2 13%
26-09	Slovenia vs Scotland	39	29	32	1.22–1.09	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
29-09	Scotland vs Switzerland	29	29	42	1.03–1.30	41	47	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
29-09	Slovenia vs North Macedonia	60	24	16	1.72–0.78	45	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
03-10	North Macedonia vs Scotland	26	28	46	0.98–1.37	41	47	0-1 13%, 1-1 13%
03-10	Switzerland vs Slovenia	70	20	10	2.02–0.67	50	43	1-0 14%, 2-0 14%
06-10	Scotland vs Slovenia	52	27	21	1.52–0.88	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
06-10	Switzerland vs North Macedonia	82	13	5	2.56–0.54	59	39	2-0 15%, 3-0 12%
13-11	Scotland vs North Macedonia	66	22	12	1.92–0.71	48	44	1-0 14%, 2-0 13%
13-11	Slovenia vs Switzerland	23	28	49	0.93–1.44	42	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
16-11	North Macedonia vs Slovenia	32	29	39	1.08–1.23	40	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
16-11	Switzerland vs Scotland	63	23	14	1.81–0.74	47	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 13%

Grupo B24 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Ukraine	+0.76	9.7	42%	28%	19%	12%
Hungary	+0.64	8.2	24%	27%	27%	23%
Georgia	+0.63	8.1	22%	26%	27%	24%
Northern Ireland	+0.52	6.6	12%	19%	27%	41%

1º: Asciende a A · 2º: Play-off (vs 3º de A) · 3º: Play-off (vs 2º de C) · 4º: Descenso a C

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
25-09	Georgia vs Northern Ireland	52	27	21	1.51–0.89	43	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
25-09	Hungary vs Ukraine	39	29	32	1.22–1.09	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
28-09	Georgia vs Ukraine	38	29	33	1.20–1.11	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
28-09	Northern Ireland vs Hungary	38	29	32	1.21–1.10	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
02-10	Hungary vs Georgia	46	28	25	1.38–0.97	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
02-10	Ukraine vs Northern Ireland	60	24	16	1.71–0.79	45	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
05-10	Northern Ireland vs Georgia	39	29	32	1.23–1.08	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
05-10	Ukraine vs Hungary	52	27	21	1.52–0.88	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
14-11	Georgia vs Hungary	44	29	27	1.34–0.99	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
14-11	Northern Ireland vs Ukraine	32	29	39	1.09–1.23	40	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
17-11	Hungary vs Northern Ireland	53	27	21	1.53–0.87	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
17-11	Ukraine vs Georgia	53	27	20	1.54–0.87	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%

Grupo B34 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Austria	+0.90	11.0	59%	24%	12%	5%
Kosovo	+0.64	7.8	17%	29%	28%	26%
Republic of Ireland	+0.59	7.1	13%	24%	30%	33%
Israel	+0.56	6.8	11%	23%	30%	36%

1º: Asciende a A · 2º: Play-off (vs 3º de A) · 3º: Play-off (vs 2º de C) · 4º: Descenso a C

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
24-09	Austria vs Israel	65	22	13	1.87–0.72	48	44	1-0 14%, 2-0 13%
24-09	Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland	49	28	24	1.43–0.93	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 13%
27-09	Austria vs Kosovo	61	24	15	1.74–0.77	46	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
27-09	Israel vs Republic of Ireland	44	29	27	1.33–1.00	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
01-10	Israel vs Kosovo	41	29	30	1.27–1.05	41	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 13%
01-10	Republic of Ireland vs Austria	28	29	43	1.02–1.31	41	47	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
04-10	Kosovo vs Austria	31	29	40	1.07–1.25	41	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
04-10	Republic of Ireland vs Israel	47	28	25	1.39–0.96	41	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 13%
14-11	Austria vs Republic of Ireland	64	23	14	1.83–0.74	47	44	1-0 15%, 2-0 13%
14-11	Kosovo vs Israel	50	28	23	1.46–0.91	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
17-11	Israel vs Austria	27	29	44	1.00–1.34	41	47	0-1 13%, 1-1 13%
17-11	Republic of Ireland vs Kosovo	42	29	29	1.29–1.03	41	47	1-1 13%, 1-0 13%

Grupo B44 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Sweden	+0.79	10.0	43%	29%	20%	9%
Poland	+0.71	9.0	30%	31%	25%	14%
Romania	+0.65	8.2	22%	27%	30%	20%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	+0.43	5.5	6%	13%	25%	56%

1º: Asciende a A · 2º: Play-off (vs 3º de A) · 3º: Play-off (vs 2º de C) · 4º: Descenso a C

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
25-09	Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	62	23	15	1.78–0.76	46	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
25-09	Sweden vs Romania	53	27	20	1.55–0.86	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
28-09	Romania vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	58	25	17	1.68–0.80	45	46	1-0 14%, 2-0 12%
28-09	Sweden vs Poland	50	28	23	1.46–0.91	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
02-10	Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Sweden	26	28	46	0.98–1.37	41	47	0-1 13%, 1-1 13%
02-10	Poland vs Romania	49	28	23	1.44–0.93	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
05-10	Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland	30	29	41	1.05–1.27	41	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
05-10	Romania vs Sweden	37	29	33	1.20–1.11	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
14-11	Romania vs Poland	42	29	29	1.29–1.04	41	47	1-1 13%, 1-0 13%
14-11	Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	66	22	12	1.91–0.71	48	44	1-0 14%, 2-0 13%
17-11	Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Romania	33	29	38	1.11–1.20	40	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
17-11	Poland vs Sweden	41	29	30	1.27–1.05	41	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 13%

Liga C

Grupo C14 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Albania	+0.51	12.4	53%	31%	16%	0%
Finland	+0.40	11.2	32%	39%	28%	0%
Belarus	+0.25	9.5	15%	29%	55%	1%
San Marino	-0.75	0.8	0%	0%	1%	99%

1º: Asciende a B · 2º: Play-off (vs 3º de B) · 4º: Descenso / play-off

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
26-09	Albania vs Belarus	61	24	15	1.75–0.77	46	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
26-09	San Marino vs Finland	3	10	87	0.48–2.94	66	37	0-2 14%, 0-3 14%
29-09	Finland vs Belarus	54	26	19	1.57–0.85	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
29-09	San Marino vs Albania	2	7	91	0.44–3.28	71	34	0-3 14%, 0-2 13%
03-10	Belarus vs San Marino	93	6	1	3.58–0.41	75	33	3-0 14%, 4-0 13%
03-10	Finland vs Albania	39	29	32	1.23–1.09	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
06-10	Albania vs San Marino	98	2	0	4.64–0.33	87	28	4-0 14%, 5-0 12%
06-10	Belarus vs Finland	37	29	34	1.18–1.13	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
12-11	Albania vs Finland	52	27	21	1.51–0.88	43	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
12-11	San Marino vs Belarus	5	14	81	0.55–2.53	59	39	0-2 15%, 0-3 12%
15-11	Belarus vs Albania	31	29	40	1.06–1.25	41	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
15-11	Finland vs San Marino	96	3	1	4.16–0.36	82	30	4-0 14%, 3-0 13%

Grupo C24 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Montenegro	+0.22	10.2	48%	26%	16%	9%
Cyprus	+0.02	7.7	19%	25%	28%	28%
Latvia	+0.01	7.6	18%	25%	27%	29%
Armenia	-0.01	7.3	15%	23%	29%	33%

1º: Asciende a B · 2º: Play-off (vs 3º de B) · 4º: Descenso / play-off

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
25-09	Armenia vs Latvia	44	29	27	1.33–1.00	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
25-09	Montenegro vs Cyprus	57	25	18	1.63–0.82	44	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 11%
28-09	Armenia vs Montenegro	32	29	38	1.10–1.21	40	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
28-09	Latvia vs Cyprus	45	29	27	1.35–0.99	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
02-10	Cyprus vs Armenia	48	28	24	1.41–0.95	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 13%
02-10	Latvia vs Montenegro	34	29	37	1.13–1.18	40	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
05-10	Cyprus vs Latvia	46	28	26	1.37–0.97	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
05-10	Montenegro vs Armenia	59	25	16	1.69–0.79	45	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
12-11	Armenia vs Cyprus	43	29	28	1.32–1.01	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
12-11	Montenegro vs Latvia	57	25	17	1.65–0.81	44	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 11%
15-11	Cyprus vs Montenegro	34	30	36	1.14–1.17	40	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 12%
15-11	Latvia vs Armenia	47	28	25	1.40–0.95	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 13%

Grupo C34 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Slovakia	+0.57	13.0	78%	16%	5%	1%
Faroe Islands	+0.14	7.8	10%	37%	35%	18%
Kazakhstan	+0.13	7.7	10%	36%	36%	18%
Moldova	-0.14	4.6	1%	11%	25%	63%

1º: Asciende a B · 2º: Play-off (vs 3º de B) · 4º: Descenso / play-off

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
26-09	Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan	46	28	26	1.37–0.97	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
26-09	Slovakia vs Moldova	84	12	4	2.69–0.52	62	38	2-0 15%, 3-0 13%
29-09	Moldova vs Faroe Islands	30	29	41	1.05–1.27	41	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
29-09	Slovakia vs Kazakhstan	71	19	10	2.06–0.66	51	43	1-0 14%, 2-0 14%
02-10	Faroe Islands vs Slovakia	23	28	50	0.91–1.46	42	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
02-10	Kazakhstan vs Moldova	62	24	15	1.77–0.76	46	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
06-10	Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands	45	29	26	1.35–0.99	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
06-10	Moldova vs Slovakia	12	22	66	0.71–1.91	48	44	0-1 14%, 0-2 13%
13-11	Moldova vs Kazakhstan	30	29	41	1.05–1.26	41	48	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
13-11	Slovakia vs Faroe Islands	70	20	10	2.05–0.66	51	43	1-0 14%, 2-0 14%
16-11	Faroe Islands vs Moldova	62	23	15	1.78–0.76	46	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 12%
16-11	Kazakhstan vs Slovakia	22	27	50	0.91–1.47	42	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%

Grupo C44 equipos · 12 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º	4º
Iceland	+0.48	11.6	65%	22%	10%	3%
Bulgaria	+0.18	7.8	15%	31%	30%	23%
Luxembourg	+0.15	7.4	13%	29%	31%	27%
Estonia	+0.03	6.0	6%	18%	29%	47%

1º: Asciende a B · 2º: Play-off (vs 3º de B) · 4º: Descenso / play-off

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
26-09	Bulgaria vs Luxembourg	47	28	25	1.40–0.95	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 13%
26-09	Iceland vs Estonia	72	19	9	2.11–0.65	52	42	2-0 14%, 1-0 14%
29-09	Bulgaria vs Estonia	54	26	19	1.57–0.85	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
29-09	Luxembourg vs Iceland	27	29	44	1.00–1.34	41	47	0-1 13%, 1-1 13%
03-10	Estonia vs Luxembourg	38	29	32	1.21–1.10	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
03-10	Iceland vs Bulgaria	63	23	14	1.82–0.74	47	45	1-0 15%, 2-0 13%
06-10	Estonia vs Iceland	21	27	52	0.89–1.50	43	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%
06-10	Luxembourg vs Bulgaria	44	29	28	1.33–1.01	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
13-11	Bulgaria vs Iceland	28	29	43	1.02–1.30	41	47	1-1 13%, 0-1 13%
13-11	Luxembourg vs Estonia	53	27	21	1.53–0.88	43	46	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
16-11	Estonia vs Bulgaria	37	29	34	1.18–1.13	40	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 12%
16-11	Iceland vs Luxembourg	65	22	13	1.87–0.72	48	44	1-0 14%, 2-0 13%

Liga D

Grupo D13 equipos · 6 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º
Malta	-0.09	7.0	53%	35%	12%
Andorra	-0.17	6.3	39%	43%	17%
Gibraltar	-0.51	3.1	7%	22%	71%

1º: Asciende a C · 2º: Play-off (vs 4º de C)

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
24-09	Andorra vs Malta	41	29	30	1.27–1.05	41	48	1-1 13%, 1-0 13%
27-09	Gibraltar vs Andorra	27	29	45	0.99–1.35	41	47	0-1 13%, 1-1 13%
01-10	Malta vs Gibraltar	70	20	10	2.03–0.67	50	43	1-0 14%, 2-0 14%
04-10	Malta vs Andorra	50	28	23	1.47–0.91	42	47	1-0 14%, 1-1 12%
13-11	Andorra vs Gibraltar	65	22	13	1.88–0.72	48	44	1-0 14%, 2-0 13%
16-11	Gibraltar vs Malta	23	28	49	0.92–1.45	42	47	0-1 14%, 1-1 12%

Grupo D23 equipos · 6 partidos

Selección	Fuerza	Pts esp.	1º	2º	3º
Lithuania	-0.01	7.2	49%	44%	7%
Azerbaijan	-0.00	7.2	49%	44%	7%
Liechtenstein	-0.60	2.2	2%	11%	86%

1º: Asciende a C · 2º: Play-off (vs 4º de C)

Fecha	Partido	1	X	2	xG	+2.5	BTTS	Marcador
24-09	Liechtenstein vs Lithuania	16	24	59	0.79–1.70	45	45	0-1 15%, 0-2 12%
27-09	Lithuania vs Azerbaijan	45	29	26	1.36–0.98	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
01-10	Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein	79	15	6	2.40–0.58	57	40	2-0 15%, 1-0 13%
04-10	Azerbaijan vs Lithuania	45	29	26	1.37–0.98	41	47	1-0 13%, 1-1 13%
13-11	Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan	16	24	60	0.79–1.71	45	45	0-1 15%, 0-2 12%
16-11	Lithuania vs Liechtenstein	78	15	6	2.40–0.58	57	40	2-0 15%, 1-0 13%

Ranking de fuerzas · las 54 selecciones del torneo

Fuerza única por equipo estimada por máxima verosimilitud ponderada. La diferencia de fuerza entre dos selecciones es lo único que determina sus goles esperados, junto con la ventaja de local.

#	Selección	Liga	Fuerza
1	Spain	A3	+1.53
2	France	A1	+1.34
3	Portugal	A4	+1.31
4	England	A3	+1.29
5	Germany	A2	+1.25
6	Netherlands	A2	+1.24
7	Belgium	A1	+1.18
8	Norway	A4	+1.12
9	Switzerland	B1	+1.05
10	Denmark	A4	+1.03
11	Italy	A1	+1.03
12	Croatia	A3	+0.99
13	Austria	B3	+0.90
14	Turkey	A1	+0.86
15	Greece	A2	+0.83
16	Sweden	B4	+0.79
17	Ukraine	B2	+0.76
18	Scotland	B1	+0.75
19	Serbia	A2	+0.74
20	Poland	B4	+0.71
21	Wales	A4	+0.66
22	Czech Republic	A3	+0.65
23	Romania	B4	+0.65
24	Hungary	B2	+0.64
25	Kosovo	B3	+0.64
26	Slovenia	B1	+0.64
27	Georgia	B2	+0.63
28	Republic of Ireland	B3	+0.59
29	Slovakia	C3	+0.57
30	Israel	B3	+0.56
31	Northern Ireland	B2	+0.52
32	Albania	C1	+0.51
33	Iceland	C4	+0.48
34	Bosnia and Herzegovina	B4	+0.43
35	Finland	C1	+0.40
36	North Macedonia	B1	+0.39
37	Belarus	C1	+0.25
38	Montenegro	C2	+0.22
39	Bulgaria	C4	+0.18
40	Luxembourg	C4	+0.15
41	Faroe Islands	C3	+0.14
42	Kazakhstan	C3	+0.13
43	Estonia	C4	+0.03
44	Cyprus	C2	+0.02
45	Latvia	C2	+0.01
46	Azerbaijan	D2	-0.00
47	Lithuania	D2	-0.01
48	Armenia	C2	-0.01
49	Malta	D1	-0.09
50	Moldova	C3	-0.14
51	Andorra	D1	-0.17
52	Gibraltar	D1	-0.51
53	Liechtenstein	D2	-0.60
54	San Marino	C1	-0.75

Modelo: bivariate Poisson (Karlis–Ntzoufras) con una fuerza por equipo, ajustado por máxima verosimilitud ponderada sobre el dataset internacional de Kaggle. Cada partido pesa (½)^(antigüedad/Half-Period) × peso por tipo de competición (amistoso 1 · eliminatoria 2,5 · torneo continental 3 · Mundial 4). Es el mismo modelo y el mismo código de backtest_2.html (dc_model_2.py); acá sólo cambian el fixture y el hecho de que los partidos se juegan con local y visitante reales, no en campo neutral.
Las probabilidades de posición salen del Monte Carlo con las fuerzas congeladas al corte: no se actualizan a medida que avanza el torneo, y no incorporan lesiones, ausencias ni rotación. La validación out-of-sample de este mismo modelo sobre las cuatro ediciones anteriores de la Nations League está en backtest_nations.html.