CONMEBOL · Libertadores + Sudamericana
Apuestas de valor — simulación Kelly
Kelly ×0.25 · umbral EV 5% · cap 20%/apuesta · banca inicial 100€ · modelo con altitud, fit as-of (sin look-ahead)
generado 2026-07-31 13:46 · 40 apuestas · cuotas Pinnacle (OddsPapi) · 40 liquidadas
evolución de la banca
apuestas
| fecha | comp | partido | pick | cuota |
p mod | EV | stake | result |
✓/✗ | P&L | banca |
|---|
| 2026-07-23 | SUD | Lanús vs Cienciano | 2 | 11.60 | 11% | +27% | 0.79€ | 2-0 | ✗ | -0.79€ | 124.08€ |
| 2026-07-22 | SUD | UCV vs Santos | 1 | 5.47 | 22% | +22% | 1.55€ | 1-4 | ✗ | -1.55€ | 124.87€ |
| 2026-07-21 | SUD | Nacional vs Tigre | 1 | 2.42 | 47% | +13% | 3.03€ | 0-3 | ✗ | -3.03€ | 126.42€ |
| 2026-05-29 | LIB | Cruzeiro vs Barcelona | 2 | 13.22 | 13% | +76% | 2.11€ | 4-0 | ✗ | -2.11€ | 133.66€ |
| 2026-05-29 | SUD | América Cali vs Macará | 2 | 6.46 | 24% | +54% | 3.29€ | 0-0 | ✗ | -3.29€ | 130.37€ |
| 2026-05-29 | SUD | Tigre vs Alianza Atlético | 2 | 12.13 | 11% | +31% | 0.91€ | 2-0 | ✗ | -0.91€ | 129.46€ |
| 2026-05-28 | LIB | Palmeiras vs Junior | 2 | 14.50 | 8% | +18% | 0.40€ | 4-1 | ✗ | -0.40€ | 122.12€ |
| 2026-05-28 | LIB | Cerro Porteño vs Sporting Cristal | 2 | 5.11 | 22% | +12% | 0.89€ | 2-0 | ✗ | -0.89€ | 121.23€ |
| 2026-05-28 | SUD | River Plate vs Blooming | X | 11.27 | 11% | +28% | 0.83€ | 3-0 | ✗ | -0.83€ | 120.40€ |
| 2026-05-28 | LIB | Corinthians vs Platense | 2 | 6.30 | 19% | +17% | 0.98€ | 0-2 | ✓ | +5.20€ | 125.60€ |
| 2026-05-28 | LIB | Peñarol vs Santa Fe | 2 | 6.51 | 20% | +32% | 1.85€ | 0-1 | ✓ | +10.17€ | 135.77€ |
| 2026-05-27 | LIB | Nacional vs Coquimbo Unido | 1 | 2.26 | 49% | +10% | 1.94€ | 1-0 | ✓ | +2.45€ | 97.26€ |
| 2026-05-27 | SUD | CA San Lorenzo vs Dep. Recoleta | 2 | 8.70 | 20% | +73% | 2.32€ | 0-1 | ✓ | +17.84€ | 115.10€ |
| 2026-05-27 | SUD | Olimpia vs Audax Italiano | 2 | 6.33 | 22% | +41% | 2.22€ | 3-1 | ✗ | -2.22€ | 112.88€ |
| 2026-05-27 | SUD | Caracas vs Botafogo–RJ | 2 | 2.08 | 68% | +42% | 11.05€ | 1-3 | ✓ | +11.93€ | 124.81€ |
| 2026-05-27 | SUD | Vasco da Gama vs Barracas Central | 2 | 8.88 | 22% | +99% | 3.94€ | 3-0 | ✗ | -3.94€ | 120.87€ |
| 2026-05-27 | LIB | Libertad vs UCV | 2 | 5.67 | 19% | +9% | 0.60€ | 0-1 | ✓ | +2.81€ | 123.68€ |
| 2026-05-27 | LIB | Independiente vs Rosario Central | 2 | 3.89 | 28% | +11% | 1.16€ | 1-0 | ✗ | -1.16€ | 122.52€ |
| 2026-05-26 | SUD | Millonarios vs O'Higgins | 2 | 6.63 | 17% | +14% | 0.65€ | 1-2 | ✓ | +3.63€ | 105.47€ |
| 2026-05-26 | LIB | Lanús vs Mirassol | 2 | 5.18 | 41% | +114% | 7.18€ | 1-0 | ✗ | -7.18€ | 98.29€ |
| 2026-05-26 | SUD | São Paulo vs Boston River | 2 | 12.93 | 12% | +54% | 1.12€ | 2-0 | ✗ | -1.12€ | 97.17€ |
| 2026-05-26 | SUD | Grêmio vs Torque | 2 | 6.76 | 23% | +56% | 2.36€ | 2-2 | ✗ | -2.36€ | 94.81€ |
| 2026-05-22 | SUD | Blooming vs Carabobo | 1 | 4.33 | 25% | +7% | 0.54€ | 0-2 | ✗ | -0.54€ | 105.45€ |
| 2026-05-22 | LIB | Peñarol vs Corinthians | 2 | 3.83 | 33% | +25% | 2.32€ | 1-1 | ✗ | -2.32€ | 103.12€ |
| 2026-05-22 | SUD | Macará vs Alianza Atlético | 2 | 12.03 | 13% | +55% | 1.28€ | 0-0 | ✗ | -1.28€ | 101.84€ |
| 2026-05-21 | SUD | Atlético Mineiro vs Cienciano | 2 | 12.25 | 9% | +11% | 0.24€ | 2-0 | ✗ | -0.24€ | 102.58€ |
| 2026-05-21 | LIB | LDU Quito vs Lanús | 1 | 1.88 | 63% | +18% | 5.30€ | 2-0 | ✓ | +4.65€ | 107.23€ |
| 2026-05-21 | SUD | Grêmio vs Palestino | 2 | 8.76 | 16% | +36% | 1.24€ | 2-0 | ✗ | -1.24€ | 105.99€ |
| 2026-05-20 | LIB | Santa Fe vs Platense | 1 | 2.15 | 51% | +9% | 1.93€ | 2-1 | ✓ | +2.22€ | 96.78€ |
| 2026-05-20 | LIB | Always Ready vs Mirassol | 1 | 4.60 | 36% | +63% | 4.26€ | 1-2 | ✗ | -4.26€ | 92.52€ |
| 2026-05-20 | LIB | Boca Juniors vs Cruzeiro | 2 | 4.64 | 24% | +12% | 0.73€ | 1-1 | ✗ | -0.73€ | 91.78€ |
| 2026-05-20 | LIB | Independiente vs Libertad | 2 | 10.82 | 12% | +32% | 0.75€ | 4-1 | ✗ | -0.75€ | 91.04€ |
| 2026-05-20 | SUD | América Cali vs Tigre | 2 | 3.51 | 31% | +7% | 0.64€ | 1-1 | ✗ | -0.64€ | 90.40€ |
| 2026-05-20 | SUD | Boston River vs O'Higgins | 1 | 4.19 | 45% | +87% | 6.16€ | 3-2 | ✓ | +19.67€ | 110.06€ |
| 2026-05-20 | SUD | Santos vs CA San Lorenzo | 2 | 4.87 | 29% | +42% | 2.96€ | 2-2 | ✗ | -2.96€ | 107.10€ |
| 2026-05-20 | SUD | Olimpia vs Vasco da Gama | 2 | 4.23 | 36% | +52% | 4.28€ | 3-1 | ✗ | -4.28€ | 102.82€ |
| 2026-05-19 | LIB | Fluminense vs Bolívar | 2 | 14.00 | 20% | +178% | 3.47€ | 2-1 | ✗ | -3.47€ | 97.90€ |
| 2026-05-19 | SUD | Audax Italiano vs Barracas Central | 2 | 3.28 | 36% | +19% | 2.00€ | 2-0 | ✗ | -2.00€ | 95.90€ |
| 2026-05-19 | LIB | Rosario Central vs UCV | 2 | 18.77 | 11% | +99% | 1.34€ | 4-0 | ✗ | -1.34€ | 94.56€ |
| 2026-05-08 | LIB | Junior vs Cerro Porteño | 2 | 3.90 | 27% | +5% | 0.47€ | 0-1 | ✓ | +1.36€ | 101.36€ |
Simulación retrospectiva sobre las cuotas de cierre de Pinnacle que tenemos
cacheadas (2026). El modelo se ajusta as-of cada fecha (sin ver el futuro) e incluye el término
de altitud. Kelly fraccionado (¼) porque los EV del modelo vienen inflados en algunos casos
(p.ej. clubes de altura de visitante); Kelly pleno arruinaría por varianza. NO es asesoramiento
financiero — es un backtest de la señal del modelo, con muestra chica.